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光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外
浏览: 发布日期:2022-09-22

中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势总结

光伏制造:我们看好上游涨价放缓将带动中下游盈利能力恢复和开工率回升,建议积极布局光伏板块的拐点。供应的释放和成本的下降,或让2022年迎来光伏新的一年。

新能源运营:受益于去年抢装用电的持续改善,2021年新能源运营商将普遍迎来业绩增长。进入平价时代,新能源发展范围广、长期增长潜力。收益方面,我们关注的是,面对建设任务的压力,运营商不盲目公开设备招标中国能源投资趋势,而是坚持保证投资收益的稳定性和可持续性,在工程建设中取得好于预期的投资收益。制造价格竞争的案例。此外中国能源投资趋势,6月底碳交易市场的启动可能会带来额外的好处。

中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势风电制造:从短期需求来看,2021年将实现40GW以上装机容量可见度很高,龙头企业订单满满。成本方面,上游原材料价格上涨对零部件的盈利能力造成压力,但上半年和下半年边际趋势有所改善。长期来看,我们认为在大型机组加速发展的趋势下,有望重塑风电制造行业格局,把握这一趋势的企业有望获得领先地位。

传统电力:1)水电、核电消费空间大幅提升,新项目审批建设步伐加快; 2)电价压力缓解,市场电价上涨; 3)火电发电意愿减弱,加快新能源部署对冲碳交易压力。

环保:“十四五”规划明确污染治理将更加深入,绿色转型将带动绿色低碳技术和产业快速发展;一家能力出众的专业环保企业。

中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势风险

光伏、风电制造上游原材料价格居高不下;新能源用电承压。

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中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势我们的偏好:光伏制造>新能源运营>风电制造>传统电力=环保

光伏制造:价格回落,需求回升,关注逆变器、薄膜、组件

上游价格拐点或为需求信号,利好政策提振2022年行业预期

中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势1-5月行业增速低于预期,上游涨价抑制下游开工率持续走弱

1-5月国内/海外组件出货量较2019年同期增长24%/27%,略低于预期。今年1-5月光伏组件出口量36.7GW,较2019年同期增长27%;国内光伏装机量9.9GW,较2019年同期增长24%。考虑到今年硅料供应可以保证170GW的需求,暗示今年的装机量2019年(109GW)可以实现56%的增长,是1-5月实际出货量增速的两倍。

图:1-5月光伏组件月度出口及同比情况

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:Solarzoom、中金公司研究部

图:1-5月国内光伏装机量及同比情况

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:CEC、中金公司研究部

导电硅材料的价格上涨在每个环节都有所不同。今年以来,供需趋紧带动硅料价格上涨153%,折合0.4元/瓦。中下游环节硅料涨价传导幅度不同。其中,硅片增长50%,折合0.26元/瓦;电池提升15%,折合0.14元/瓦;组件上涨8%,折合0.13元/瓦(组件板块额外承受玻璃降价vs出货涨价+汇率升值对成本的负面影响,合计0.08元/瓦特)。

下游成本转移难度加大,电池及零部件开工率持续下滑,后续预期仍不明朗。 1月、3月、4月、5月组件开工率分别为84%/75%/66%/64%(不计2月春节影响),电芯90%/80% /72%/67%,分别。后续预期鉴于7月仍不明朗,我们将等待上下游价格的边际变化。

图表:原材料价格上涨的传导过程(2021年1月至2021年6月)

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:Solarzoom、中金公司研究部

图表:3月以来,零部件及电池厂商开工率加速下滑

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:PVInfolink、中金公司研究部

需求压力逐步传导至上游,看好上游涨价拐点,将带动板材行情启动

经过四分之一的博弈,我们认为行业承受涨价的能力基本得到证明。我们认为,经过一个季度的价格博弈,行业中下游对涨价需求的负反馈基本形成自下而上:终端电站全投资回报率基本不低于6%,元器件和电池的价格已经达到了6%。 1.8元/瓦后,1.1元/瓦以上,传导难度增加,拉货力度迅速下降。分布式市场基本接受1.8元/瓦的组件,而地面电站仍然在1.75元/瓦左右竞争。

高库存 + 低建设或对上游需求的负面反馈。据PVInsight统计,1Q2整个光伏行业库存水平1、2Q21持续上升,截至5月底较去年底增加41GW(其中,电池模组26.1GW,硅片和硅材料14.6GW)。我们判断库存已经达到高位,结合开工率没有明显改善的情况,我们认为上游需求可能会在一段时间内逐渐感受到下游的负面反馈。

图表:产业链库存(截至2021年5月末)

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:PVInsight、中金公司研究部;

上游价格企稳的积极信号正在显现。看好产业链博弈接近尾声,带动下半年开工率回升。

硅料价格涨幅放缓:6月多晶硅周均价格涨幅较4-5月收窄。部分多晶硅订单的议价模式由周议价转为月议价,为硅料涨价形成缓冲。 6月23日,硅料上涨趋势今年以来首次企稳。截至6月26日,国内单晶复喂致密料成交均价稳定在217、213元/kg。

硅片开工率有所下调:硅片开工率4、5月份也出现了向下调整的迹象,由3月份的91%下调至4/5月份的85%/83%。 6月24日,隆基股份硅片官网报价环比持平,证实下游已基本证明硅片价格承受极限。

图:6月以来,硅料涨价放缓

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:Solarzoom、中金公司研究部

图表:4月以来,硅片厂商开工率也有所下调

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:PVInfolink、中金公司研究部

2022年将是光伏大年:新硅材料供应释放+项目电价提升预期

从明年一季度开始,全行业硅材料新增供应将逐步释放,产业链利润分配有望逐步回归平衡。我们预计明年全行业供应能力将增至240GW,硅材料供需格局将走出严重短缺状态,释放产业链需求增长潜力。

新增产能集中在电价低的地区,供应增加后有望释放光伏降本空间。根据公司预期,硅材料行业新增产能主要集中在电价不高于0.3元/kWh的低电价地区。电费成本占硅材料生产成本的40%,预计明年底后全行业成本曲线可能下移,为光伏降本腾出空间,刺激需求回升。

集中:政策上调了2022年项目预期电价,看好明年项目量将增加。 6月11日,国家发改委《关于2021年新能源上网电价政策有关事项的通知》明确,2021年新增项目按燃煤发电标杆上网电价,新增2022年项目仍可按燃煤电标价上网。

分布式:看好组件价格回归后,明年分布式装机将继续高位增长,分布式全县推进试点政策,给出渗透率量化目标屋顶光伏。 6月20日,国家能源综合司正式印发《关于报送全县(市、区)屋顶分布式光伏发展试点的通知》,拟开展推进屋顶分布式光伏发展试点工作全县光伏发电。

我们认为分布式光伏在碳中和进程中的重要性逐渐被认可,我们看好央企与民营企业合作实现分布式光伏市场的增长。 “十四五”电力央企光伏装机目标雄心勃勃,配电是实现目标的关键。我们认为,央企有资金优势,民营企业可以提供本地渠道和专业、可靠、一体化的光伏产品。两者在制造、开发和运营上的分工合作有望推动分布式光伏发展。

辅料率先受益“需求”,优先配置逆变器、薄膜、元器件

看好2021年全球光伏需求达到150~160GW

考虑到产业链中下游生产的高度灵活性,我们认为年产业链产量由硅材料供应决定,预计达到170GW。但考虑到终端组件生产、交付和安装的时间差,标称装机容量可能会略低,在150-160GW。

从季度来看,二、第三季度需求可能依然疲软。随着上游价格回归理性,以及部分国内可负担项目需要并网,四季度需求或将出现明显回升。我们预计,到年底国内并网装机容量数据可能保持在60GW以上。如果组件价格过高,部分组件实际出货可能会推迟到明年一季度,但这不会改变光伏强劲的潜在需求。

在需求回暖的背景下,建议围绕三大主线布局2H21光伏市场

主线1:分布式光伏需求旺盛,头部逆变器和运营公司看好。国家发改委近期政策统一了今年15GW+户装机规模的要求,堆​​加工业务预计5GW+。我们看好国内分布式装机容量将达到20GW+。展望明年,我们预计中央和国有企业将大规模进入市场。 2022年产业链价格调整后,分布式分销有望快速增长。

主线2:供需良好的细分板块龙头有望充分受益于需求增长。 1)电影:我们看好上游扩产将缓解原材料成本和毛利率压力,并充分受益于下半年下游开工率回升和需求增长。 2)逆变器:逆变器在光伏系统中占比较低,原材料芯片涨价基本可以向下游传导。龙头企业芯片供应保障能力更强,份额有望提升。

主线3:前期受两端挤压最为严重的零部件板块,目前盈利有望触底反弹。建议关注组件部分的预期不佳。若上游涨价出现缓和迹象,我们认为有望带动下游产业链开工率和盈利能力出现拐点。明年一季度后,随着硅料价格的回归,我们预计产业链的利润分配有望逐步从上游转向下游。其中,组件价格在海外具有一定的期货属性。我们看好组件板块的毛利率将受益于硅材料的降价。定期分红。

新能源运营:平价后长期增长,收益稳定可持续

增加装机容量并改善使用小时数,以实现 2021 年的高性能增长

2020年新能源装机容量将快速增长,部分并网容量将在1H21实现商业化。 2020年全国新增风电和光伏装机7167万千瓦和4820万千瓦,累计运行容量分别达到2.8亿千瓦和2.5亿千瓦,一年-同比增长34.6%,24.1%。今年前5个月新增风电和光伏装机779万千瓦和991万千瓦,累计装机增长34.4%和24.7 % 同比。

经过去年的大规模安装,风电和光伏仍具有良好的吸收能力。风电方面,今年1-5月弃风率持续改善,风机利用小时数同比增长10%至1053小时。光伏方面,受日照较弱等客观因素影响,利用小时数较去年同期略有下降1.7%至541小时,但1Q21弃光率下降0.@ >75ppt至2.比上年5%,光伏吸收能力有所提升。

图:2021年1-4月各省风电利用小时同比增速

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:CEC、中金公司研究部

图:2021年1-4月各省光伏利用小时同比增速

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:CEC、中金公司研究部

在建设任务压力下,电力公司没有盲目进行设备招标,坚守回报底线要求

上半年,上游硅料短缺推高下游组件价格,光伏项目难以满足投资回报要求。大型电力企业放缓设备集中招标。年初以来,上游硅料价格较年初上涨150%以上,元器件价格涨至1.8元/瓦,难以为电站投资回报率达到运营商回报率底线(资本回报率7%-9%),设备招标步伐放缓,开工率低。我们认为,电力公司还是对项目回报水平有一定的关注。

风机价格持续下跌,平价项目回报好于预期,未来需求持续旺盛。随着大型机组的推进和零部件价格的大幅下降,2021年5月风力发电机组的平均投标价格已达到2500元/kW左右,较2020年价格下降35%。我们估计风电项目初期投资每减少100元/kW,电站股本回报率将增加约0.5pct。在近期风电价格下,风电项目回报率较好,电力企业可以优先建设风电项目并满足装机目标,未来回报有望提升。

图表:2020 年初至今风力涡轮机价格趋势

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:风电招标网、中金公司研究部

图:2021年国内光伏组件集中采购价格走势

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:光伏、中金公司研究部

6月底启动碳交易市场,新能源运营商有望获得额外收益

全国碳市场将于6月底前开始网上交易,已备案的项目或将率先受益。今年5月,生态环境部下发碳排放权登记、交易、结算等相关文件,全国碳交易市场启动进入倒计时阶段。目前,CCER已注册860多个项目,预计年减排量约为1.8亿吨CO2当量。在注册项目中,风电占比最高,约为34%,光伏占比约为7%。我们看好新能源运营商利用碳排放权市场化定价机制,有望进一步提升盈利能力,增加现金流。

CCER短期供需紧张,重启认证有望推动CCER价格发现。我们预计2021年CCER的年需求量约为2亿吨。但由于2017年国家发改委暂停新项目CCER申请和减排中国能源投资趋势,在库登记项目总量有限,仅为CCER全年需求量的一半。我们预计,CCER 供需短期或将保持紧张,长期有望通过重启项目认证,将更多绿色减排项目纳入碳交易市场体系,促进发现CCER价格,成为新能源运营商新的收入来源。

图表:中国的温室气体自愿减排 --- 按类别汇总,记录项目的年减排量估算

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:中国自愿减排交易信息网、中金公司研究部

风电制造:需求旺盛中国能源投资趋势,成本压力利润率有望改善

竞价回暖,2021年行业新增长有望保持高位

2020年的抢装会给新增装机数据带来一些“扭曲”。 (1)并网数据量大可能是由于对往年未纳入并网统计的个别项目集中确认,仅部分并网项目2020年底全部完成,满负荷计算;(2)如果风扇出货量数据偏大,可能是整机投产较早,出货集中在2020年。

预计2021年新增装机仍将保持较高水平。近期行业招标量较2020年的抢装期开始回升。4Q20-1Q21行业总招标量已达到28GW以上(基本为陆上项目),加上此前招标的海上10GW以上项目2021年将抢装风电 早期的陆上项目已经能够保证2021年大部分新增规模。我们预计2021年国内新增并网容量有望达到40GW以上。

图表:中国风电行业招标量

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:中国风能协会、金风科技官网、中金公司研究部

图表:中国新增风电装机、并网及预测(2011-2021)

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:中国风能协会、国家能源局、中金公司研究部

风电规模化趋势明显,陆上项目合理收益率推动需求持续增长

抢装后,风机中标价格有明显下降趋势。风扇价格的下降主要是由于大功率机型的推出和零部件成本的同比下降。我们分析了近期招标价格下降的主要原因:1)大型风机导致风机单位功率重量减少,节省了采购零部件的成本;新车型的产能将节省运输成本; 3)陆上风电抢装后,零部件采购成本将有一定下降。

图表:风力涡轮机的月度公开招标价格

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:金风科技官网、中金公司研究部

图表:4M21新风电项目价格分布

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:风电招标网、中金公司研究部

注意:项目统计数据可能不完整。与实际情况略有偏差

大型机组继续降低每千瓦时风电的成本。我们认为,在不久的将来,由于机组的大型化,每千瓦时的电费成本已显着下降。陆上风电在三北风资源优质但电价低的地区和部分电价高但资源平均的地区表现出合理的回报率。预计风电装机需求将持续旺盛。

图表:陆上风电项目在不同建设成本下的IRR计算对比(无补贴)

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:发改委、水电水资源规划设计总院、中金公司研究部

原材料涨价或将告一段落,零部件成本压力有望逐步改善

与风电相关的上游大宗商品价格上涨可能即将结束。我们认为下半年铁制品价格或将缓慢回落,零部件成本压力有望改善。

图表:铸造生铁价格走势

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:Wind资讯、中金公司研究部

图表:普通中板价格走势

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:Wind资讯、中金公司研究部

推荐受益于大型机组趋势的领先零部件和整机企业

我们建议关注那些通过先进的产能扩张获得市场份额的公司。我们认为,未来几年,整机环节仍应关注厂商新机型研发水平、与上游零部件供应商的合作能力以及持续降低成本的趋势,建议关注到整机环节的龙头企业。

传统电力:水电、核电率先受益,关注火电股转型机会

严格的电源和能耗控制,传统电源的多重变化

煤价和能源消耗高,火电供应受限,水电、核电消费空间大增

电力行业正处于夏季高峰期,用电量增加,火电供应有限。经济增长和高温天气共同导致夏季电力需求旺盛。从目前对今年夏季部分省份电力供需情况的预测来看,很多地方可能会出现缺电情况。但受煤炭供应紧张和价格高企的影响,火电每度电利润微薄甚至亏损。受能耗指标约束,火电企业发电能力和发电意愿均有限。尽管国家发改委等有关部门出台了保煤稳供措施中国能源投资趋势,但7月份,建党100周年筹备工作提速,煤矿可能进入安全大检查,这将影响供应释放,煤价回落还有待观察。

水电、核电替代需求明显,装机容量建设将明显加快。在这种情况下,我们认为水电和核电机组作为非化石能源将首先受益,消费空间将明显改善。有望实现满负荷产出,进一步优化项目回报水平。在项目建设方面,我们对核电审批持乐观积极的态度。作为清洁基荷能源,加快新项目审批。我们看好2021年获批单位数可能达到8个,“十四五”有望持续;他强调,雅鲁藏布江下游水电开发项目将尽快提上日程。今年还将有几座在建水电站投入运行。我们预计中游大型机组的加速投产将提高水力发电的贡献率。

供电吃紧推高整体成交价位

各地市场化电价表现积极。江苏、山东、广东等地电价均上涨。现货方面,5月份广东地区日均成交价格继续上涨。

供需形势在企业端得到了清晰的反映。 1-5月,华能水电全省用电量每千瓦时增加0.012元,我们预计未来三年电价将继续上涨。此外,我们预计“十四五”“西电东送”部分的电价水平也有望高于上一个5年周期。

图表:江苏拍卖成交价

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:电力交易中心、中金公司研究部

图表:山东拍卖成交价

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:电力交易中心、中金公司研究部

图表:广东拍卖价差

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:电力交易中心、中金公司研究部

注:2020年8月数据为-130元/MWh

图表:云南拍卖成交价

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

资料来源:电力交易中心、中金公司研究部

传统电源加速部署新能源,强劲的现金流成为其转型的重要支撑点

顺应我国电力结构调整,传统电源加速新能源布局,重塑企业成长。在碳中和目标下,火电改造任务艰巨。总体目标是,到“十四五”期末,新能源装机占比达到50%以上,五年内新增产能20-40GW。 Hydropower and nuclear power companies take the initiative to expand their business. Among them, Yangtze Power aims to plan 15GW of new energy installations in the lower reaches of the Jinsha River during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. Energy base, supporting 25GW of new energy resources.

Different from new energy operation subsidy projects, the recovery of electricity bills for fire, water and nuclear power is healthy and brings stable cash flow. In 2020, the net cash flow from operating activities of traditional power companies will range from RMB 14.6 billion to RMB 42.1 billion, injecting continuous and stable cash flow into the company. However, with the stagnation of thermal power project construction, the nearing end of large-scale hydropower development and the slowdown in nuclear power construction, the free cash flow of traditional power companies has gradually improved, and the asset-liability ratio has gradually decreased, opening a transformation cycle for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and accelerating the deployment of new energy operations. Funding basis is provided.

Graph: Operating cash flow of traditional power companies in 2020

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

Source: Wind Information, CICC Research

Graph: Weighted average asset-liability ratio of major power companies

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

Source: Wind Information, CICC Research

Environmental protection: the policy is expected to continue to be strict, and the importance of green and low carbon is highlighted

The 14th Five-Year Plan clarifies that pollution control will be more in-depth, and the demand for ecological and environmental protection is expected to continue

In the 14th Five-Year Plan, ecological and environmental protection management is expected to continue to promote, and the demand will further increase. In November 2020, the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-term Goals for 2035" (referred to as the "Proposal"), plans to accelerate the promotion from 1) Green and low-carbon development; 2)continuously improve environmental quality; 3)enhance the quality and stability of ecosystems; 0.0@>promote green development in terms of comprehensively improving resource utilization efficiency. The "Recommendation" clarifies that the environmental protection governance policy will continue to be strict in the future, and the current shortcomings in environmental protection governance are still obvious. We believe that the country will further promote the governance of air, sewage, soil, and hazardous waste in the future; at the same time, the "Recommendation" plans to establish the value of ecological products. To realize the mechanism, promote garbage classification, and speed up the construction of a recycling system for waste materials, we are optimistic that the demand for related industrial chains will increase in the future.

The 14th Five-Year Plan clarifies that the trend of ecological and environmental protection governance will not change, and pollution control will be more in-depth in the future. In the 14th Five-Year Plan, the requirements for ecological and environmental protection construction are still strict. Compared with the "13th Five-Year Plan", we believe that:

Emphasis on policy continuity: It is clear that environmental governance has a long way to go. In the 13th Five-Year Plan, the total amount of pollutant emissions will be greatly reduced, and the overall improvement of ecological environment quality will require further reduction of pollution emissions and continuous improvement of environmental quality;

More in-depth environmental protection: During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the direction of pollution prevention and control will remain unchanged, and the intensity will not be reduced, and the requirements for improving the ecological environment will be higher, and the tough battle will be extended in depth and breadth.

Long-term vision to 2035: Increase the vision of 2035, propose the widespread formation of green production and lifestyles, stabilize and moderate carbon emissions after peaking, fundamentally improve the ecological environment, and basically achieve the goal of building a beautiful China.

Promoting carbon neutrality, green transition is the focus of the "14th Five-Year Plan"

Green and low-carbon is one of the key directions of the 14th Five-Year Plan, helping to achieve carbon neutrality.

From the supply side, promoting the use of cleaner energy and carbon capture technology (carbon capture) will help to achieve the general goal of carbon neutrality; while from the demand side, we believe that green and low-carbon transformation will is an essential component.

"Energy saving + emission reduction" realizes green and low-carbon transformation.

Energy saving: At present, my country's GDP still maintains a relatively stable growth. The proposal of the concept of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality means that the energy consumption per unit of GDP will drop significantly. Therefore, we believe that there will be a technology market space that will help reduce energy consumption and improve efficiency in the future. Sufficient, such as resource utilization, smart environmental protection, etc.

Emission reduction: In the past, carbon dioxide was not a pollutant, so the emission and monitoring of carbon dioxide were not perfect before. With the promotion of green and low carbon, we believe that it will help to promote the construction of carbon emission and carbon trading related systems, such as Carbon trading market and CCER.

Carbon trading + CCER, the only way to achieve carbon peak carbon neutrality

The carbon trading market is a necessary means to achieve green and low carbon. The carbon trading market can use the market mechanism to promote the reduction of carbon emissions, enhance the value of enterprises to reduce carbon emissions through the quota and trading system, and promote the green upgrade and transformation of enterprises. The CCER market can be linked with the quota market through the offset mechanism. The state will certify the voluntary emission reduction (CCER) for the corresponding projects that meet the standards. The emission control enterprises in the quota market can purchase the corresponding CCER offset emissions, which can currently be used to offset emissions. The proportion shall not exceed 5%.

Graph: Schematic diagram of carbon trading

0.1@>

Source: Ministry of Ecology and Environment, CICC Research

CCER is gradually approaching, and the market space is sufficient. According to the data of China Carbon Accounting Database, the carbon emission of the electricity and heat sector in 2018 was as high as 4510 Mt, accounting for about 47% of the total carbon emission. If the upper limit of the offset ratio of 5% is calculated, the corresponding CCER transaction demand is about 2.@ >2.5 billion tons. Considering that more energy-intensive enterprises (petrochemical, chemical, building materials, steel, non-ferrous, paper, electric power and civil aviation, etc.) will be gradually included in the future, we estimate that the demand for CCER is expected to reach 400 million tons in the future, which can actually absorb carbon emissions. Negative carbon technologies are more popular, such as forestry carbon sinks, carbon capture, and landfill gas power generation.

Environmental protection industry: Looking for high-quality technology providers and professional environmental protection enterprises with outstanding operational capabilities around sectors with high prosperity and strong growth certainty

Main line 1: Recycling is in line with the general direction of green and low-carbon development, and the leading competitive advantage is significant

Resource recycling Reprocessing and reusing waste available resources (such as steel, rubber, and plastics) will help ease the pressure of my country's growing resource demand, reduce production energy consumption, and contribute to carbon neutrality overall promotion of the policy. The metal hazardous waste recycling market has a broad market space and a clear business model. It is one of the preferred sectors:

Clear business model: The core of the enterprise is processing and manufacturing profits, and the profit model is stable.

Sufficient market space: We estimate that the future market space for the metal hazardous waste recycling industry will be about 150 billion yuan.

Small market concentration: The current market of the hazardous waste industry is relatively fragmented. From the perspective of the metal hazardous waste recycling sector, the market share of leading companies is only 1%-5%.

We are optimistic about future industries with technological advantages and strong economies of scale. It is recommended to pay attention to leading companies in the industry.

Main line 2: The penetration rate of landfill biogas power generation is improved enough, and the benefit of CCER elasticity is significant

The inclusion of CCER has brought about a significant increase in the profit per kilowatt hour. The carbon emission reduction brought by the landfill biogas project mainly comes from two aspects, 1)reducing the direct emissions of greenhouse gases such as biogas, and 2)reducing the carbon emission caused by electricity generation or heating through fossil fuels and other means. We calculate that the CCER transaction is expected to increase the profit of biogas power generation projects by 101.4%, and the landfill gas power generation business still has a large market space.

Graph: 2010-2019 China Landfill Number and Treatment Capacity

0.6@>

Source: Wind Information, CICC Research

Graph: 2015-2019 China's biogas power generation cumulative and newly installed capacity

0.7@>

Source: China Biomass Power Generation Industry Development Report, CICC Research

Main line three: carbon neutrality increases the demand for new energy sanitation, and sanitation is still expected to maintain a high degree of prosperity

New energy sanitation equipment is a long-term trend. The introduction of solid waste policies such as "garbage sorting" has driven the rapid increase in the demand for sanitation equipment. According to relevant association data, from 2016 to 2020, the penetration rate of new energy sanitation vehicles continued to be 1.5%-0.9@>5% In between, the proportion is still low. In 2020, in the "Recommended Catalogue of New Energy Special Vehicles" announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, sanitation vehicles accounted for a large proportion. We believe that in the future, benefiting from the country's continuous promotion of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the field of sanitation, there will be ample room for industry improvement in the future. We recommend paying attention to leading companies in sanitation equipment.

Graph: The penetration rate of new energy sanitation vehicles is low

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

Sources: Special Vehicle Branch of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Huajing Industry Research Institute, Research Department of CICC

Chart: Sanitation vehicles accounted for a large proportion of the 13 batches of "Recommended Catalogues for New Energy Special Vehicles" announced in 2020

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

Source: Automobile Terminal, CICC Research

Main line 4: Smart water business has a high degree of prosperity, reducing costs and increasing efficiency to solve the shortcomings of the water industry

Smart water has alleviated the shortcomings of the water industry, and there is ample room for future growth. We believe that smart water affairs is expected to optimize the water affairs business process through the integrated management of water affairs, which is conducive to alleviating the current situation of insufficient water resources, severe water pollution and high leakage rate in my country. We believe that the estimated future smart water market space will exceed 300 billion yuan. According to forward-looking industry research data, the current market size is less than 20 billion yuan, and there is ample room for future improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to the first release of the bureau's smart water affairs, and it is expected to become the leading enterprise of smart water affairs IoT integrator in the future.

Chart: There is ample space in the smart water market

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

Source: CICC Research

Main line 5: Waste incineration is still a rigid demand of the government, and CCER may improve company profits

Waste incineration belongs to the government's rigid needs. Waste incineration has outstanding livelihood attributes, relatively rigid demand, and less economic impact, which is conducive to ensuring the stability of the profit model, and we expect that the waste incineration industry is still expected to maintain stable growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. Waste incineration can replace fossil fuel power generation or heating, so it can be included in CCER for trading. We estimate that CCER is expected to contribute about 11.1% of the profit of waste incineration projects, which will hedge the risk of subsidy decline to a certain extent. It is recommended to pay attention to waste incineration enterprises with strong project operation capabilities and intensive production capacity.

Graph: CCER's calculation of profit elasticity of waste incineration projects

光伏制中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势造:看好上游涨价趋缓建议积极布局光伏板块拐点

Source: CICC Research

中国能源投资趋势,中国投资趋势,中国海外房地产投资趋势This article is selected from "CICC Securities", authors: Liu Jun, Jiang Xinhao, etc.; editor: Qin Zhizhou

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